Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
