It was 60 days prior when the Villa attacker was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery berated him for not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his performances were an indicator or the reason for the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. As the England international swept in his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win , after failing to win any of their first six matches, now sit only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
This is a rather hard question to answer. History, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have stacked up.
As per statistical analysis, twice all season has the side had an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a team that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – but right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with an opponent and wait for their star man to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it happened in London, and once more against United.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, will not continue to thrashing the ball into the top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to scoring again.
- The winger may rediscover the force he showed in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers now would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as a vital player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. As Rogers faced the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.
