Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
